The Law of Distribution Arbitrage

Every marketing channel starts hot, then cools fast. David Sacks nailed it: once everyone copies a distribution trick, it stops working. This is “distribution arbitrage” in action — the early bird gets cheap clicks, views, and growth before the rest flood in.

Why It Works

• Early adopters benefit from low competition.

• Attention is a finite resource; saturation kills ROI.

• Platforms boost early users to encourage adoption.

• Once a tactic is common, novelty fades and costs rise.

Examples

• TikTok ads were cheap in 2019; now CPCs doubled.

• Facebook organic reach dropped sharply after 2014.

• Cold email once crushed; now spam filters rule.

• Early SEO bloggers ranked fast; now it’s a slog.

Creative Variations

Hand-drawn pen style

Classic 1950s print ad

Futuristic style

Funny style

Annotated sketchbook style

Eye-tracking heatmap